Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Lions 2014 NFL Draft Preview

BYU defensive end Ezekiel Ansah and his 3D glasses was the Lions first round pick in 2013. Which prospect will be shaking Roger Goodell's hand as Detroit's first round selection this year? Hint: Another defensive lineman
There is just over a week remaining until the 2014 NFL Draft, set to take place from Thursday, May 8 to Saturday, May 10 in New York City. The Lions still have needs at many positions, but with the Ndamukong Suh contract extension situation at a stand-still, and with Detroit choosing not to pick up Nick Fairley's fifth year option, I think general manager Martin Mayhew will select a defensive lineman with the 10th overall pick in the 2015 draft.

Let's look at what Detroit has done since the end of the season; the personnel releases and signings that makes defensive lineman a likely choice.

The Lions came into the 2014 free agency period with a glaring need at wide receiver and arguably cornerback as well. Safety also opened up as Louis Delmas was released in February, a move that was made due to Delmas's contract as he was scheduled to make $5.5 million in 2014. Wideout Nate Burleson was also released the same day, again for cap reasons. Both releases were difficult to see as Delmas and Burleson were leaders in the locker room and Burleson was a great media presence for the Lions.

After re-signing center Dominic Raiola, long-snapper Don Muhlbach, and safety Don Carey prior to March, Detroit began the free agency period on March 12 by announcing the re-signings of a few of its own. The Lions inked running back Joique Bell to a three year extension, then signed wide receivers Kevin Ogletree and Kris Durham, tight end Matt Veldman, linebacker Julian Stanford, and cornerback Chris Greenwood.

On the third day of free agency, the Lions made a splash by signing wide receiver Golden Tate (he of replacement referee infamy) to a five year deal worth $31 million. Tate gives the Lions a solid second option at wide receiver and many say he has had the best hands in professional football over the past few years, although he might be a bit overpriced. The Lions also signed defensive end Darryl Tapp (previously of the Redskins) and defensive tackle Vaughn Martin (Dolphins) on that day, and since have added fullback Jed Collins (Saints), re-signed defensive lineman Andre Fluellen and tight end Brandon Pettigrew, then signed an important piece in safety James Ihedigbo (Ravens).

Members of last year's squad that have signed elsewhere include quarterback Shaun Hill (St. Louis Rams), and defensive ends Willie Young (Chicago Bears) and Israel Idonije (Bears).

So with all these roster moves, who and/or what positions will the Lions be looking for in the upcoming draft?

Well, the Lions could still draft a safety or cornerback. Another wide receiver would certainly make this offense dynamic, and with new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi coming in from the New Orleans Saints, fans have to realize that the Lions new offense will strive to resemble that of Drew Brees and his deep corps of wideouts. Before Pettigrew's re-signing, tight end could have been a major position of need, and in the past few drafts, the Lions have typically picked-up at least one tight end so this could be another position to watch. With Raiola only getting older, the Lions should also look to grab a center to play under his tutelage for a season before taking the starting job. Finally, given Detroit's situation with its current defensive tackles, a defensive lineman could be the choice. This, I believe, is the route which the Lions will take, making it the fourth time in five years that Detroit selects a defensive lineman with its first round pick.

Here are the players that I think the Lions will take with their eight picks this season.

Round 1 – pick 10 – 10 overall
  • Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh – As I mentioned in the opening paragraph, the Lions have two defensive tackles whose contracts will end after this year, unless re-signed, in Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley. Suh can sometimes be a headcase, and his antics over the past few years have given Detroit a bad reputation, while Fairley can be tough to motivate and keep in shape over a 16 game season. Picking Donald, the consensus top defensive tackle in the draft, not only allows the Lions to have an incredibly deep defensive front, it also provides necessary insurance when one of the two current tackles aren't re-signed – and at a cheaper price. If not Donald, then perhaps UCLA defensive end Anthony Barr, Oklahoma State cornerback Justin Gilbert, or Texas A&M receiver Mike Evans.
Round 2 – pick 13 – 45 overall
  • Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt – While wide receiver is still a position of need for the Lions, I think the depth of this year's class allows Detroit to wait until the second round to pick up a player that will still make an impact in his rookie year. At 6'3” and 212 pounds, Matthews will be a solid player as a third or fourth receiver. Other players Detroit could look at here could be Indiana WR Cody Latimer or BYU DE Kyle Van Noy if Lions don't go defensive line in round one. Van Noy was Ezekiel Ansah's roommate at BYU, making him an interesting target.
Round 3 – pick 12 – 76 overall
  • Weston Richburg, C, Colorado State – I feel like this pick has been a couple years coming, now, but Dominic Raiola continues to play well despite his age. Signing him to another one-year contract, I feel like the Lions are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and realize his successor has to be picked. The third round is a good spot to pick a center, and I think this is the most logical course of action for the Lions to take. Nebraska cornerback Stanley Jean-Baptiste, NC State safety Deone Bucannon, or Washington TE Austin-Sefarian Jenkins could also be looked at here by Detroit.
Round 4 – pick 11 – 107 overall
  • Loucheiz Purifoy, CB, Florida – This is the time that the Lions usual grab a cornerback, someone to provide depth and develop in the system, and this year is no different. Detroit has been targeting taller cornerbacks the past few years, and at 6'1” and 189 pounds, Purifoy fits the bill. Purifoys teammate and fellow CB Jaylen Watkins could also be looked at here, as well as LSU DT Anthony Johnson or Kent State RB Dri Archer.
Round 4 – pick 33 – 133 overall – compensatory
  • Marcel Jensen, TE, Fresno State – With only Brandon Pettigrew and Joe Fauria coming back for the Lions who have seen significant playing time at tight end, picking a tight end here makes a lot of sense for Detroit. Jensen's size at 6'6” and 259 not only makes him a big target in the red zone but also strong on the line as a run-blocker. Detroit could also take a look at Baylor RB Lache Seastrunk or Florida State center Bryan Stork with this pick.
Round 4 – pick 36 – 136 overall – compensatory
  • Nate Freese, K, Boston College – Martin Mayhew, in the past, has often picked players that he really likes well before their projected round – punter Sam Martin and cornerback Chris Greenwood quickly come to mind. He does it again this year with kicker Nate Freese, afraid he may be gone by the sixth round, when Detroit has its next pick. The Lions also brought in Freese for a pre-draft visit, the only kicker they did so with. The only punter they brought in last year? Sam Martin. Other players the Lions could consider here include outside linebacker Khairi Fortt of California, defenseive end Josh Mauro of Stanford, or wide receiver John Brown of Pittsburg State.
Round 6 – pick 13 – 189 overall
  • Jerome Couplin III, S, William & Mary – The Lions grab another big secondary player in Couplin in the sixth. Detroit brought Couplin in for a pre-draft visit, and when thinking about late-round picks, looking at pre-draft visits are a good indicator as to who teams are interested in compared to online scouting reports. Lions could also look at Maryland CB Dexter McDougle or local WR Jeff Janis of Saginaw Valley State.
Round 7 – pick 12 – 227 overall
  • Larry Webster, DE, Bloomsburg – Former basketball players are all the rage in the NFL, and Detroit gets theirs in the seventh round in defensive end Larry Webster. Webster had 26 sacks and 31 tackles for loss in just two seasons playing football at Bloomsburg University, a Division II school in Pennsylvania. Denico Autry, a defensive end out of Mississippi State, could also be the pick here, or perhaps a kicker if the Lions don't grab one earlier.
With these eight picks, the Lions not only fill a number of needs but get guys that will have early impacts on the roster. Of course, the later round picks are clear guesses, as different teams have different draft boards. Last year, the only pick I correctly guesses was Ezekiel Ansah in the first round, so I'm trying to improve on 1/9. Hope you enjoyed the read, and enjoy the draft! If I'm not too busy, I hope to have quick reactions to the Lions picks next week.  

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Detroit Lions 2014 Schedule Breakdown

New Detroit head coach Jim Caldwell (center) hopes to lead the underperforming Lions back to the playoffs in 2014. 

The Detroit Lions' schedule for the 2014 season has been revealed. While the NFL Draft has not taken place yet, the chances that the Lions choose a truly team-changing player is slim, so I'll make an early prediction on Detroit's win-loss record for next season.

First of all, the schedule.

Week 1 – Monday, September 8 – vs New York Giants
Week 2 – Sunday, September 14 – @ Carolina Panthers
Week 3 – Sunday, September 21 – vs Green Bay Packers
Week 4 – Sunday, September 28 – @ New York Jets
Week 5 – Sunday, October 5 – vs Buffalo Bills
Week 6 – Sunday, October 12 – @ Minnesota Vikings
Week 7 – Sunday, October 19 – vs New Orleans Saints
Week 8 – Sunday, October 26 – @ Atlanta Falcons (London)
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – Sunday, November 9 – vs Miami Dolphins
Week 11 – Sunday, November 16 – @ Arizona Cardinals
Week 12 – Sunday, November 23 – @ New England Patriots
Week 13 – Thursday, November 27 – vs Chicago Bears
Week 14 – Sunday, December 7 – vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 15 – Sunday, December 14 – vs Minnesota Vikings
Week 16 – Sunday, December 21 – @ Chicago Bears
Week 17 – Sunday, December 28 – @ Green Bay Packers

Now, here are the games where I think Detroit will pick up wins: vs Giants, at Panthers, at Jets, vs Bills, at Vikings, vs Miami, vs Tampa Bay, and vs Minnesota.

The losses are as follows: vs Green Bay, vs New Orleans, "at" Atlanta, at Arizona, at New England, vs Chicago, at Chicago, and at Green Bay.

Much like the past three seasons, the Lions have a favorable schedule to open up the year. Out of the first six games, five are quite winnable, and Detroit could go into their bye in week nine with a very understandable 5-3 or 6-2 record.

But, the back end of the schedule will be tough, beginning in week 11 with a game in Arizona, where the Lions haven't won since 1993. Detroit then travels to Foxborough for an away game against the Patriots, followed by a short three-day week before a game at home against Chicago on Thursday (the Bears come off a game in Chicago versus Tampa Bay as Detroit plays New England).

Match-ups with Tampa Bay and Minnesota will then be anything but “gimmes,” as exemplified by the Buccaneers' 24-21 win over the Lions in Detroit last season, although I've tallied them as wins. 

Ending the season, games at Chicago and at Green Bay will be difficult as usual, especially with all three teams possibly in the hunt for a playoff position, and possibly home-field advantage. Of course, even if one of the teams has already secured playoff positioning, playing against backups doesn't always ensure a win (see 2011 loss to Packers, 480 yards passing, 6 TDs for Matt Flynn here).


So, my overall record estimate for the Lions in 2014: 8-8; unless we see a major improvement in the defensive backfield and 2011 Matthew Stafford, which I hope is the case.